Basically for every minute of the season we look at who is on the court and how the score of the game changes. After adjusting for who you play with and against, we come up with an Adjusted +/- Rating for a player. For example, currently we rate LeBron James as a +21 Points Rating, +19 Offense Rating, and -2 Defense Rating. This means that if LeBron replaced an average NBA player for 48 minutes we estimate that his team would perform 21 points better. If LeBron replaced an average offensive player his team would score 19 points more per game, and if LeBron replaced an average NBA defender his team would give up 2 fewer points per game.

When you apply this method, you realize that Marc Gasol is better than his elder brother Pau. You also find out the following:

Carmelo Anthony is overrated and Nene is underrated. Being a top scorer does not make you an all star. Denver has played great in Melo’s absence. Nene’s +10 Points rating shows that Nene is a major contributor to the Nugget’s success.

You may disagree with this approach, but it is certainly better than approach which selects Allen Iverson as a starter and T-Mac as a serious candidate for the All-Star game.

The guiding principles of triangle offense:

The triangle, created by the post, wing and corner players, revolves around seven guiding principles: the ball handler reading the defense; correct decisions based on the defense; penetration through a pass into the post; separation of 15 to 20 feet for all the offensive players; movement through sharp cuts; interchangeability in positions; and balance for defensive transition.

It is opening up options for all five players on the court. The attraction is that there are no set plays, just constant movement until a scoring opportunity opens up:

The triangle differs from more traditional N.B.A. offenses because it presents more options for the five players on the court. There are no set plays, just many possibilities.

The triangle was (only) really successful with Jordan or Bryant to do what they do best:

…when all else fails, the triangle summons a player like Bryant or Jordan to create his own scoring opportunity.

The role players should love this kind of offense:

The offense’s main payoff, Rambis said, is that secondary players become involved.

Rambis about the benefits of the triangle:

“It really teaches players how to play,” he said. “It teaches players how to move without the basketball, how to read defenses, how to play together.”

Is this good for most players?

One of the things that makes the triangle tough is, pretty much besides the center, every other piece is interchangeable. – A Western Conference scout

It is not easy for young players, like Flynn, to adapt and adopt the triangle:

It’s a mind-set. You just have to be open, you have to be receptive and you have to be willing to realize that you can’t dominate the basketball. If you are good to the offense, the offense will be good to you. – Jim Cleamons

The best definition of the player with high basketball IQ comes from Van Gundy:

It’s a guy who has an innate understanding, the game comes easily to him… They see things once and it all makes sense to them. Basketball just makes sense to them and they make smart plays. They’re ahead of the play defensively. They can pick up plays you put in easily.

While doing further research on the basketball IQ on the web, I came across another article on The Crossover Movement blog. This paragraph in particular caught my eye. I believe the description extends to any player who, for whatever reason, plays out of his position. The worst, as highlighted below, is when a scorer is put into a position to be a playmaker. This rarely works well.

Combo Guards dominate the low I.Q. list: Arenas, Crawford, Ellis, Iverson, Tinsley, Jones. I have written about the difference between point guards and combo guards previously. While these players may be low I.Q. players, to me, the obvious point is that they are shooting guards trying to be point guards. As I have written before, this is a poor use of their skills and personality. They are scorers and to expect them to change and become point guards reduces their effectiveness.

It can work well, though. Dwayne Wade is a natural scorer, who excels when he has the ball in his hands. He is as good a playmaker as any point guard in the league.

In the New York Times article from November 19th, the author Jonathan Abrams analyzes some data from Synergy and extrapolates interesting facts about the usage and value of the old-school “pick and roll” offensive strategy.

Yes, the old-fashioned pick-and-roll is becoming more and more popular offensive strategy to win games. As is well known to anybody who ever played a serious basketball game, it involves two players, with one player dribbling the ball and another screening his defender (setting the pick). The player with the ball then has an option to attack the hoop, shoot, pass to the rolling or “popping” teammate, or to pass to a third teammate, typically waiting behind the three-point line. This play, although very simple, in the hands of great players becomes an almost indefensible offensive set.

Here are excerpts from the NYT article:

Use of the pick-and-roll rose to 18.6 percent of the league’s total plays last season from 15.6 percent in 2004-5, when Synergy began tracking it.

But over all, the Synergy numbers confirm what many in the N.B.A. have witnessed. Offenses now spread defenses thin with mobile big men, quick point guards and long-distance shooters. The pick-and-roll is the orchestrator of all that.

The defender guarding the ball handler can squeeze past the player setting the pick to stay with the ball handler (known as going over the pick). He can also try to avoid the pick by running behind the pick and then resume guarding the ball handler once he moves past the screen (known as going under the pick).

The two defenders can also switch whom they are guarding, with the taller defender momentarily defending the smaller ball handler and trying to hinder his vision before hurrying back to the player who set the pick. Or the defender guarding the ball handler can try to direct him away from the pick before it can take place.

The Synergy analysis showed that defenses were most effective when the on-ball defender went under the pick, temporarily abandoning the ball handler and then picking him up again.

With effective teams, the defensive strategies are limited. There are just too many options with the pick-and-roll, too many height and quickness mismatches for the offense to take advantage of. The defensive thought process turns simple, if futile. Sometimes, it just hopes that the team running the pick-and-roll misses whatever shot it chooses to take.