Marko Tomas in Action

I’d like to remind my US audience that basketball is played throughout the world. This game is second to only soccer as the most widespread ball game in the world, and one of few truly international games invented on the American soil. But when I say the whole world, I really mean US and Europe. Yes, Argentina and Brasil have good leagues; the game is gaining popularity in China by hour; Australia has put some decent teams together in the past decades. But the best players find their way either to an NBA team or to a team which plays in Euroleague. Most of the best players early in their career (Ricky Rubio) or a bit later (Luis Scola) get drafted into the NBA.

Paul Pierce from the Celtics

Euroleague is a serious business, fans have real passion, and the quality of basketball is very good. A lot of talented players play Euroleague hoping that it will be a conduit to the NBA, but some choose it as their final destination. For years I’ve been following some teams which play Euroleague, one of them is Cibona from Zagreb, Croatia. This year they have a solid team, but one which is not likely to go very far after the group round.

Now, I am slowly coming to the topic of this article: Cibona’s best paid and likely their best player Marko Tomas, a star of sorts. Every time I watch his game he reminds me of one of the NBA stars Paul Pierce, from the Boston Celtics. They couldn’t be more different in some ways, Pierce makes millions while Tomas probably doesn’t crack the 1/2 mil mark; Pierce clearly has many times more talent and athleticism; Pierce won an NBA championship two years ago while Tomas hasn’t won anything yet. Neither is young any more, although Tomas is considerably younger. But the game, when you watch them play they both dance through defenses, the ball sticks to their hands, you can’t say if they’ll shoot or attack the rim, while quite often they’ll find an open guy as the defenses collapse around them. They are both elusive offensive players, very hard for defenders to track down.

Yes, Pierce may finish more of his shots and drives. He will likely have more assists on a given night because he is surrounded by Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, but that game is born out of the same basketball dream that two kids once shared – one in L.A. another in Koprivnica, Croatia. And every time I watch either of them play, I am reminded that this game is one of the great connectors of distant places on earth, and human beings who couldn’t be less alike.

Why am I so pessimistic?

1. I am not a Rondo believer. Not that he is a bad point guard. He is really not. But I don’t believe in players who turn their game on or off by following some unpredictable urge which neither the fans nor, what’s worse, his coach and teammates can understand. He’s been like this since he got into the league and he will not change despite the 55mil contract. During the Celts’ last game, against the Nets, Rondo sat most of the fourth quarter. Eddie House led the Celts to the win. If Rondo played, the Celts may not have gotten the win. Despite the stat sheet, Rondo is the weakest link in the Celtics line-up, the link that other teams more and more often decide not to guard. I am very convinced that even 5 mediocre NBA players can guard 4 of the Celtics aging stars. The Nets proved that.
2. The Celts don’t get to the foul line nearly as often as they should. With exception of Paul Pierce, they simply don’t attach the hoop. Perkins is the only big player with a resemblance of an inside game, but Perk is only solid offensively, his real strength is defense. Ray Allen will go inside when the threes don’t fall in. I expected Daniels to attack more, but he’s been reserved so far, maybe still trying to learn his role.
3. The Celts have three seven-footers and are getting out-rebounded. This is the most frustrating component of the Celtics game. They have enough size to outrebound every opponent, yet they don’t do it every night. They’ve been sloppy with their box-outs, or maybe with age they lost a bit of that lateral movement and agility required for consistent box-outs. This is another result of a lot of the players preferring the outside game, lurking from behind the three-point line.
4. The Celts are struggling mightily when playing back-to-back games. Is this age? Is this lack of conditioning? It’s been particularly noticeable with Allen and Garnett. It is true that they’ve had a loaded schedule so far and that it came too soon, but the whole point of deepening the bench was to avoid the tiredness in the middle of the loaded schedule. Maybe the bench is not paying off the way the management and the coaching staff expected.
5. I don’t think that Doc Rivers is a great coach. I say this with conflicting feelings because he seems to be a great guy (never met him). Also, he’s had success, he won the championship two years ago. But even during that championship year I had a feeling that something was lacking. It is not very tangible, that what’s lacking. It’s just that his rotations don’t give me the confidence. In my view he gets stuck with certain rotations. For example, I watched Hudson in few minutes he played this season. It is clear that Doc will trust him only when the lead is big, but during the time he played he didn’t make a single mistake. He shows maturity on the court. Maybe try him at the point before the game becomes decided and finally relieve Eddie from running the game as he is not very effective at that.
6. Garnett is not 100% and maybe he never will be again. Let’s face the truth, he can barely dunk. Now, I wasn’t thrilled about Rondo/Garnett dunking plays last year as I suspected it might lead to Garnett’s injury, but this year his elevation is just not there. Forget about dunking, just look at his 18-foot jumper. Garnett never shot 1 of 9 until this season. I hope he recovers and does it quickly because Garnett is a true force in today’s game and his passion can be matched by no other player.

It would be a terrific Celtic-Lakers series in the Finals. I hope both teams make it there after some exhausting, exhilarating 7-game series in the Playoffs. If they do, and if players on both teams are healthy, I don’t think that the Celtics can match what the Lakers can throw at them. I am writing these words and hoping that I am so wrong.

Why did I chose exactly these teams. Either because they are geographically close to where I live, so I am more likely to watch live games, or because of the memories from years ago (I used to watch Partizan in the late-eighties and Cibona in the mid-nineties).

This season should be exciting. Cibona has steadied itself under seasoned coaching by Velimir Perasovic. Partizan is hoping to repeat last year successes (coming off their first NBA pre-season tour ever). Their continuity is in their coaching staff led by Dusko Vujosevic, and I am sure they will launch some new young players this year – again. The Celtics have improved their roster by adding Sheed and Daniels, two types of players they desperately needed. Belmont Marauders are loosing three starters and captains from last year: their designated three-point shooter, and both paint players. Between them, they are loosing 60% of all points and 80% of all rebounds. This being said, they have a very solid senior class. Their back-court should be strong especially defensively, their leading scorer is a senior (and hungry for more visibility), and it is yet to be seen if any junior or sophomore will play a significant role this year. Overall, it should be an enjoyable season to watch as I expect the team to play faster and more exciting basketball (last year was a bit on the boring side).

I am running a bit late, as Adriatic League already started and Euroleague has started too. Cibona already played Partizan in Belgrade and came back home with a win. A big win to start the season. Analysis of the game is to come soon. Stay tuned…

Dominance of Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers

Like the C’s and Spurs the past two years, look for the Lakers and Cavs to continue the superior team play that is necessary to win on the biggest stage. The stage is set for the two best teams in the league to show just how deep and talented they are.

The Attempt at a Green Repeat

Despite the loss of their vocal leader and defensive stopper, the Celtics will try to build upon their championship year last season and reach the Finals once again. Doc Rivers and the Boston coaching staff have preached the meaning of the word “ubuntu” and how to deal with adversity. There is no greater adversity than the loss of Kevin Garnett.

Individual Rivalries

The big talk will be about the potential Kobe vs. LeBron duel in the final round, reminiscent of the Larry Bird vs. Dominique Wilkins duel or Michael Jordan vs. Magic Johnson/Charles Barkley/Larry Bird. But do not forget other individual battles, such as Brandon Roy vs. Ron Artest or Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson in the preliminary round.

Emergence of a Superstar

Every year, there is a chance for a star on the verge of becoming a superstar to make a name for himself on the biggest stage. Like LeBron against Detroit in ‘07 or D-Wade in ‘06, look for a player like Brandon Roy or Carmelo Anthony to emerge as not only a rising star, but a true superstar. In this discussion, Dwight Howard’s name must also be mentioned because he has the tools around him to make a deep postseason run.

The Last Stand of the Alamo

With its aging roster and the injury to Manu Ginobili, this is San Antonio’s last shot at the title. If the Spurs have any chance to upset the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers, Tony Parker will have to have a phenomenal postseason.

Offense vs. Defense

In virtually all previous Playoffs, the team that could stop the other team from scoring won in the end. This season, both the Lakers and Cavs have shown they can score at will, but it will be the team that can defend that will emerge victorious. Do not expect an offensive battle deep in the Playoffs.

Any Chance for an Upset?

I do not see any major upsets happening, but, as in all sports tournaments, watch out for the lower seeds. A team like the New Orleans Hornets or Philadelphia 76ers could potentially make some noise in the postseason. Any team with a superstar who could go off (like Chris Paul) or an athletic team who plays a up-and-down style (like the 76ers) could upset a higher seed. Just ask Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks what happened with Baron Davis and the Golden State Warriors in ‘07.

Battle of the Big Men

Remembering Shaquille O’Neal’s postseason run in the early portion of the decade, this tournament could prove to be run by the centers of the league. It is time for both Yao Ming and Dwight Howard to make names for themselves when it really matters. Also, look for the Lakers to dominate with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

The Last Hurrah

For those aging superstars who have already made a name for themselves in the postseason, this year could be their last run. Do not be surprised if this is the last time you see a Kobe Bryant or Tim Duncan at the biggest stage, as they are getting up there in years.

Home Court Advantage

If home court will prove to play as big a role in the Playoffs as predicted, do not be surprised that a team riding that momentum on their home floor makes some noise. For example, a team like the Portland Trailblazers or Denver Nuggets could surprise some with their play at home. Just remember the Boston Celtics last year.

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons (Cleveland in 4 games)

The Cavs are simply too deep for the aging Pistons, who have had a very inconsistent season this year. Their postseason experience will not help them with a motivated Cleveland club.

Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls (Boston in 6 games)

Boston will be challenged by the young Bulls, who rely on their athleticism like the Atlanta Hawks did last year, but their experience and savvy will be enough to overcome Chicago, who is led by a rookie.

Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Orlando in 5 games)

The Magic will be too much to handle for the 76ers, especially with Dwight Howard in the post. The three-point shooting from Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu will also trouble Philly.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat (Atlanta in 6 games)

Despite Dwyane Wade’s remarkable scoring ability, which will keep the Heat in the series, the depth of the athletic Hawks will wear down the Heat, who are relying on two rookies to help D-Wade.

Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz (Los Angeles in 5 games)

Their play in Utah will be enough to prevent a sweep, but the Jazz cannot match the heavily favored Lakers, who are poised to start their title run with a bang.

Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets (Denver in 6 games)

Denver will be able to overcome the remarkable play of Chris Paul and consistency of David West with the scoring of Carmelo Anthony, veteran leadership of newly-acquired Chauncey Billups, and post play of both Nene and Kenyon Martin.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks (San Antonio in 6 games)

Despite the loss of Manu Ginobili, the Spurs will beat the inconsistent Mavs. The one-two punch of Tony Parker and Tim Duncan and overall experience of the club will prove to be too much for Dallas.

Portland Trailblazers vs. Houston Rockets (Portland in 7 games)

Home court advantage will play a major role in this series in the favor of the young Blazers. They will be able to counter Yao Ming with both LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden. Brandon Roy will prove to be too much for both Ron Artest and the Rockets.